LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) - Copper prices are due to rebound next year as healthy supply/demand fundamentals overcome macro-economic worries, but zinc will be held back by rising output, a Reuters poll showed.

The London Metal Exchange index of industrial metals has shed 13 percent this year, largely due to disquiet about trade tensions and slowing growth in top metals consumer China, despite signs of potential shortages of many metals.

The LME cash copper price in 2019 is seen averaging $6,699 a tonne, according to the median forecast of 30 analysts.

That is about 7 percent higher than Thursday’s close, but represents a 6 percent downgrade of the forecast in the previous Reuters poll in July.

“Currently too much non-fundamental, macro noise is keeping the copper price low, but as soon as trade war jitters fade and more encouraging Chinese macro numbers are presented, fundamental drivers will take over,” said Casper Burgering, senior commodity economist at ABN AMRO in Amsterdam.

While analysts still expect shortages next year, they have cut their consensus forecast of a global deficit to 44,000 tonnes from 151,000 tonnes in the July poll.

They have also penciled in a surplus of 13,500 tonnes this year, down from their previous estimate of a shortfall of 129,000 tonnes, after a strike failed to materialize at top mine Escondida.


Zinc has been the worst performing LME metal so far this year, chalking up losses of 20 percent, and analysts do not hold out much hope for a rebound next year.

The metal mainly used for galvanizing steel has crumbled due to the macro-economic concerns that have hit base metals generally, while next year increasing amounts of ore from mines should move to smelters and alleviate shortages of refined metal, analysts said.

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Name Last Change
DOW 26559.50 0.40%
S&P 500 2905.03 0.16%
NASDAQ 7998.06 0.02%
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TSX-V 609.21 0.00%

Resource Commodities

Name Last Change
Gold 1274.26 0.00
Silver 14.91 0.67%
Copper 2.93 2.927
Platinum 901.00 0.67%
Oil 64.00 0.38%
Natural Gas 2.49 1.08%
Uranium 25.88 0.12%
Zinc 1.27 0