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In its latest report, BMI Research raised the 2018 aluminium price forecast to $2,000/tonne, from a previous forecast of $1,900/tonne.

Increasing demand, particularly from China, explains the shift as it “leads to a deeper-than-previously forecasted market deficit,” says the firm.

In the document, BMI goes on to explain that next year’s higher prices are the natural development of 2017’s reaction to strong Chinese economic data. The Asian giant’s financial performance pushed up base metals in August and allowed aluminium to break the $2,000/tonne barrier for the first time in three years.

“We previously identified this level as indicative of aluminium moving into a structurally higher trading range. Specific to the aluminium market, Chinese authorities will target significant capacity cuts over November 2017 – March 2018 as part of efforts to improve air quality. As of late October, we see this development as largely priced into aluminium prices. However, stricter enforcement of the cuts than we expect, namely targeting of active rather than just idled capacity that is not offset by new smelters coming online, could lead to a material decline in Chinese aluminium production and further deepen the global deficit, thus posing an upside risk to prices in 2018,” the report states.

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Name Last Change
DOW 24487.70 2.16%
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Resource Commodities

Name Last Change
Gold 1221.10 0.24%
Silver 14.30 0.84%
Copper 2.80 0.000
Platinum 840.00 1.37%
Oil 56.76 0.53%
Natural Gas 4.70 9.11%
Uranium 29.18 0.17%
Zinc 1.22 0.00%


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