Bank of Japan policymakers see little to cheer in successfully defending their yield target as European and U.S. central banks start to pull the plug on ultra-cheap money, casting doubt on the BOJ view that global bond yield gains will be short-lived.
Rising global yields forced the Japanese central bank to rev up bond buying last Friday to cap 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields around its zero percent target, putting it at odds with its counterparts eyeing an exit from ultra-loose policy.
With JGB yields having stabilised, policymakers say the step reminded investors that the BOJ won’t follow the U.S. Federal Reserve or European Central Bank in dialling back stimulus any time soon.
But Friday’s episode underscored the challenges the BOJ faces in battling market forces beyond its control.
By offering to buy at the same rate at which it intervened in February, the BOJ has effectively set a “line in the sand” that it may have to defend each time overseas forces drive up Japanese yields, say people familiar with the bank’s thinking.
That runs counter to the hope that many BOJ officials had to leave some flexibility on when and at what level the central bank steps in to defend its yield target.
A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan June 16, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai
“YCC is a difficult framework to manage. It’s fine when yields are low and stable, but that’s not always the case,” said one of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
That view was echoed by two other people, with one saying: “It’s hard to know what could have happened if the BOJ waited a little longer before stepping in.”
Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term rates at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year JGB yield at around zero percent. It does not define what is considered “around” zero.
While BOJ officials say they won’t hesitate to step in for as much as needed to defend their yield target, doing so would also complicate the bank’s attempt to gradually whittle down its massive bond-buying program.
The key aim of adopting YCC was to shift the BOJ’s policy target to interest rates from the pace of money printing, as its huge bond buying was drying up liquidity and nearing its limit.
Having already gobbled up 40 percent of the entire bond market, the BOJ has been quietly slowing its purchases in what some analysts described as “stealth” tapering.
Ramping up bond buying again would severely distort market functions and makes a future exit from ultra-loose policy even more difficult, said former BOJ board member Sayuri Shirai.
“It’s necessary to taper the BOJ’s asset purchases to make its policy framework sustainable,” she said. “It’s pretty clear the merits of the current stimulus programme are diminishing and the costs rising.”
The BOJ was forced to increase buying three- to five-year JGBs on Wednesday as five-year yields hovered near 1-1/2 year highs.
Many BOJ officials say markets have over reacted to ECB President Mario Draghi’s signals of a gradual withdrawal of stimulus, and cling to hopes that the impact of global bond yield rises on Japan would be limited.
They argue that JGB yield gains won’t last unless driven by a pick-up in Japanese inflation, which remains elusive.
But there’s no guarantee global yield rises will be subdued, with the Bank of England and Bank of Canada joining others seeking to pull the plug on extraordinary monetary support deployed during the global financial crisis.
US Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming August 22, 2014. Photo: Reuters/David Stubbs
For the BOJ, raising the 10-year JGB yield would be hard to justify with inflation far from its 2 percent target, but allowing yields to deviate too far from its zero-percent target could cast doubt on its resolve to defend the target, and accelerate JGB yield rises.
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