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General Market Commentary
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General Market Commentary
Benchmark downplays investor fears of looming lithium oversupply, subsequent price crash
VANCOUVER (miningweekly.com) – London-based Benchmark Mineral Intelligence has downplayed top-level investor fears this week regarding the potential for lithium market oversupply and an inevitable price crash to follow.
The energy metals-focused research company pointed out that rumours about up to 180,000 t/y of added lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) units coming on line in China over the next 12 months are probably unfounded, and probably at best in the region of 100,000 t/y of new conversion capacity, only by the end of 2019.
However, China's spodumene conversion capacity has been climbing rapidly in recent years. According to senior analyst Andy Miller, China boasts about 200,000 t/y of total LCE conversion capacity, but noted that in reality, it only ever uses about 140,000 t/y of capacity. Further, not all of the capacity has the ability to produce battery-grade lithium chemicals.
Benchmark estimates that Chinese converters produced about 120,000 t of LCE in 2017, up from only 85,000 t of LCE in 2016.
"Benchmark discounts a large proportion of this new capacity as hearsay and conjecture. Historically, the installed nameplate capacity of many Chinese facilities has been much higher than their actual output levels," Miller said in a research note.
The high-quality converters Benchmark tracks are "few and far between", and include the lithium majors such as Ganfeng Lithium, Sichuan Tianqi and Albemarle's GRM.
However, bottlenecks in the supply chain from spodumene to battery-grade chemicals have become apparent the further downstream one looks, such as the manufacture of lithium chemicals, battery-grade chemicals and cathode manufacturing.
"As spodumene players tie in conversion partnerships, it's critically important to ask who is converting this material and if they can reach specification for battery makers. Just selling to China is not the end of the story, it's just the beginning," Miller stated.
Further, Benchmark waylaid fears of increasing volumes of direct shipped ore entering the production chain, saying it is discounting direct shipping ore (DSO) completely until concrete evidence of this being first processed into spodumene and then into LCE units presents itself.
Meanwhile, the recent deal between Chile's Corfo and producer SQM to increase SQM's extraction licence to 216,000 t/y of LCE to 2025 is good news for a lithium industry post-2021, Benchmark said, noting that until at least then, the status quo would remain.
AUTOMAKERS DEMAND
Benchmark believes the demand pull from the automakers for their lines of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids is yet to arrive for lithium.
Toyota Tsusho announced its deal with Orocobre to take a 15% stake in the Argentina-based brine producer to fund a 25,000 t/y expansion to 42,000 t/y of nameplate capacity.
"The new deal is a great boost for Orocobre and a vote of confidence for the Olaroz project that has had its share of criticism. This is simply the next stage of a producer and trader relationship, rather than a decision from the top of Toyota's EV planning tree. Toyota's EV ambitions will crystallise towards the end of 2018 and into 2019," Miller stated.
Benchmark believes the high-profile pursuit for upstream cobalt and lithium resources by automakers has only started. Last year, Volkswagen unsuccessfully tried to secure lithium and cobalt supplies.
"All automakers are now fully aware of the need for secure, long-term lithium supply but none have yet locked in long-term contractual agreements. Their negotiating stance is weakening by the day as more automakers commit tens of billions of dollars to build out their EV production capacity – Ford being the latest, committing $11-billion to build 40 hybrid and pure EVs by 2022.
"Therefore, while this auto speculation aids the upward trajectory of lithium's price curve, it is not yet the defining factor. Real lithium supply and demand – producers selling to cathode manufacturers – is what is driving this price. The auto majors are yet to enter this "real" market," Miller advised, noting that 2018 may indeed be the year to watch out for several lithium auto deals to be struck as the need for long-term supply intensifies.