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General Market Commentary
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Precious Metals
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General Energy
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General Market Commentary
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General Precious Metals
Cobalt, uranium and silver prices expected to rally in 2019
A new report by FocusEconomics on the prospects of commodities this year and next paints a mixed picture. The survey of investment banks, institutions and research houses compiled by the Barcelona-based company has good news for long-suffering investors in uranium and silver, while those who burned fingers in the rise and fall of cobalt could also look forward to some relief.
Gold
Gold showed promise early this year, but on Thursday the precious metal was back to square one for 2019, dropping through the psychologically important $1,300 an ounce level. Consensus is for gold to revisit its February high around $1,350 by the end of the year, as sluggish global growth, stalled interest rates in the US and safe haven demand prompt physically-backed gold ETF investors to jump back in and central banks continue their buying spree.
Silver
Silver's continued underperformance – it was back below $15 again Thursday – has been a real disappointment with the precious metal failing to capitalize on shrinking mine supply, the fact that half of overall demand is from industry (and a good chunk of that from green energy). Silver is set for a double digit percentage rebound from today’s levels with the more bullish forecasters including TD Securities, BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs, seeing a return to $17-plus during the final quarter of this year.
PGMs
Platinum and palladium went in opposite directions last year with the latter stretching the gap with its sister metal to the widest in 16 years. Platinum has finally halted its decline and is trading up more than 12% in 2019 while palladium’s record-setting run on the back of supply fears from Russia and South Africa appears over for now. Palladium is likely to retreat from today's lofty levels to trade at around $1,240 by the fourth quarter, nearly $400 below it’s March peak, according to consensus forecasts. The range of estimates for the typically opaque palladium market is broad, with bulls RBC and BMO Capital Markets seeing a return to near record levels in contrast with Commerzbank predicting another $100-plus fall from today’s levels by end-2019.