Categories:
Base Metals
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General Market Commentary
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General Base Metals
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General Market Commentary
Copper supply woes on show with No. 2 mine output to halve
TORONTO – A battle over the world’s second-largest copper mine has dogged Freeport-McMoRan shareholders for more than a year. Now it may be the turn of the copper market.
Production at Grasberg in Indonesia will fall by more than half next year as its giant pits transition to underground operations, cutting some 300 000 metric tons of supply from a market many already believe is headed for deficit.
The drop in projected production, revealed by Freeport’s guidance, highlights the supply-side challenges facing copper. While prices have slid 17 percent from an early- June peak on fears of a global trade war, many investors, traders and mining executives remain bullish about the long-term prospects.
“The problems facing copper supply are meaningful, widespread and generally underestimated," said David Lilley, MD of Drakewood Capital Management. "It seems like wherever you look there are challenges be they political, labor unrest, under-investment, ore-grade depletion or some combination of them all."
The output drop at Grasberg has been a long time coming.
The mine, which sits at high altitude amid the tallest mountain range in Indonesia’s remote Papua province, is one of the world’s richest mineral deposits, pumping out billions of dollars’ worth of copper and gold over the past 30 years.
Freeport has long been anticipating the end of openpit mining at Grasberg, and is hoping two new underground mines, both located below existing mines, will return output to previous levels within a few years. But technical challenges have slowed the ramp-up of Deep MLZ, while the Grasberg Block Cave won’t even start producing copper until 2019, meaning total production at the Indonesian mine will be “ significantly lower” in 2019 and 2020, Freeport said July 25.