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Base Metals
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General Market Commentary
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General Base Metals
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General Market Commentary
Global copper surplus for January-April rises to 80,000 mt: ICSG
Global supply/demand factors indicate an 80,000 mt surplus in the refined copper market for the first four months of this year, according to preliminary data released Thursday by the International Copper Study Group.
"This is mainly due to the decline in Chinese apparent demand; China currently represents 48% of the world copper refined usage," the Lisbon-based research group said.
Chinese apparent demand, excluding changes in unreported stocks, declined by 7% in the first four months because a 6.5% increase in refined production was offset by a 36% decline in net imports, ICSG analysts said.
Preliminary data indicates that although world ex-China usage might have grown slightly by around 0.5%, growth was more than offset by a 7% decline in Chinese apparent demand.
Among other major copper-using countries, usage increased in India, Japan and Taiwan, but declined in the US and Germany, the ICSG said.
On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have declined in all regions: in Africa by 1%, in Asia by 3%, in the Americas by 1% and in Europe by 6%. Excluding China, however, Asia usage increased by 7%.
Total usage for the first four months slipped to 7.5 million mt from 7.8 million mt in the year-ago period.
World refined production is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged in the first four months of 2017 at 7.6 million mt, with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning) declining by 2% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 12%.
"Increased availability of scrap allowed world secondary refined production to increase, notably in China," ICSG analysts said.
"The main contributor to growth in world refined production was China (up 6.5%), followed by Mexico (up 11%), where expanded SX-EW capacity contributed to refined production growth."
But overall growth was partially offset by a 16% decline in Chile, the second largest refined copper producer, where both primary electrolytic refined production and electrowinning production declined, the ICSG said.