Gold’s deal blitz could draw in the rest of mining

A torrent of deal-making among gold producers that’s pushed M&A in the sector to an eight-year high is seen spilling over into the wider mining industry — if there’s a rally in global growth.

Pending and completed gold acquisitions have reached about $33 billion so far in 2019, the highest since 2011, according to data complied by Bloomberg. That’s as deals among all mining companies have declined about 29% from last year to $60 billion, the data show.

A revival in the economic outlook, with higher interest rates and inflation, would prompt other metals producers to rethink their current strategy of cutting debt and lifting shareholder returns — and focus again on pursuing growth, according to Christopher LaFemina, a New York-based analyst at Jefferies LLC.

“Until now, the market has rewarded companies for austerity” amid a chase for yield, LaFemina said in a phone interview. “We will see a significant acceleration of M&A activity when global growth recovers.”

In recent times, the biggest miners, including Rio Tinto Group and BHP Group, have made only some small investments in undeveloped projects and authorized new spending on expansions at existing operations.

Larger-scale M&A could be an option for Rio next year, UBS Group AG analysts, including Glyn Lawcock, said in a report this month. “Will 2020 see the shackles come off? Growth in the portfolio is limited,” they said.

Rio has a “watching brief for attractive M&A opportunities,” though intends to remain “absolutely disciplined,” Chief Executive Officer Jean-Sebastien Jacques told investors at an October seminar. The company has said its ventures team is evaluating opportunities in battery materials, including in nickel. There would be “plenty of logic” for Rio in adding copper producer First Quantum Minerals Ltd., according to Barclays Plc.

BHP is also seeking to add oil, copper and nickel, and could consider deals that offer an early entry into high-quality resource bases, particularly before the value of a project is fully understood, Chief Financial Officer Peter Beaven said in May.

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