Categories: Base Metals / Energy / General Market Commentary / Precious Metals
Topics: General Base Metals / General Energy / General Market Commentary / General Precious Metals

India pulled 86% of its cash out of circulation. It’s not going well.

India pulled 86% of its cash out of circulation. It’s not going well.

The prime minister’s controversial bid to crack down on corruption has tons of costs.

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of cities throughout India to protest an economic policy you probably haven't heard of before: demonetization.

Three weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised his country with an announcement banning 500- and 1,000-rupee notes — worth about $7 and $15 respectively — in a bid to tackle corruption and terrorism.

He estimated that forcing people to exchange the country's largest currency bills for new banknotes would allow the government to crack down on "black money" — unaccounted-for cash holdings that haven't been taxed but, under the law, should be. He also argued that it would strike at domestic terrorist financing operations by capturing counterfeit money and rendering the legitimate cash they kept in the shadows worthless.

Banning widely used banknotes would have a huge impact on any economy, but in India the policy is transformative. Modi's sudden ban instantly meant that 86 percent of all the cash in circulation in India was no longer considered legal tender, which means that businesses could refuse to accept those bills as a form of payment. And the Indian economy simply runs on cash: It's estimated that between 90 and 98 percent of all transactions in India, measured in terms of volume, involve it.

Unsurprisingly, Modi's demonetization initiative has caused chaos across the country. People want new banknotes, but the current supply of them isn't close to meeting demand. That's created headaches for people as they wait in long lines outside ATMs and banks, which routinely run out of cash. For people who rely on daily cash earnings to survive, it can mean not being able to obtain food.

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