More than half of new cars sold by 2040 will be electric, report says

In a little more than 20 years, electric cars will make up more than half of global new-car sales and more than a third of the world’s car fleet, thanks mostly to falling lithium-ion battery prices and rising commitment from car makers, according to a report this week.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance said electric cars will comprise 54% of new-car vehicles and 33% of the fleet world-wide by 2040 as price-competitive electric vehicles will be available in all major light-duty vehicle segments. 

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Sales until 2025 will remain comparatively low, but BNEF predicted a jump in adoption in the five years to 2030 as electric vehicles become more economical in terms of unsubsidized total cost of ownership.

China, the U.S. and Europe will make up more than 60% of the global electric-vehicle market by 2040, BNEF said. Electric vehicles will reach unsubsidized price parity with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines around 2029, the point that “real mass-market adoption” starts in most markets, it said. 

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After 2025, all-electric vehicles will leave plug-in vehicles behind, as the engineering complexity of plug-ins, their cost and dual powertrains make all-electric cars more attractive in the long-run, BNEF said.