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General Market Commentary
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General Energy
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General Market Commentary
Prospect Generator in Position for Uranium Turnaround
Ross McElroy of Fission 3.0 sits down with Proven and Probable's Maurice Jackson to discuss the state of the uranium market and his company's myriad projects in Canada's prolific Athabasca Basin.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Ross McElroy, the COO and chief geologist for Fission 3.0 Corp. (FUU:TSX.V; FISOF:OTC.MKTS): A Uranium Project Generator and Property Bank. Ross McElroy, glad to have you back on the program to share the value proposition of Fission 3.0. Before we begin, Ross, I'd like to begin with some basic fundamentals regarding uranium. For someone new to the uranium sector, what is uranium, and where is it used?
Ross McElroy: Uranium is really all about energy. The way we use uranium is for nuclear fuel. That's basically the fuel that runs reactors.
Globally nuclear power constitutes between 15% and 20% of the electrical requirements. That's really where the majority of the uranium is used. There is some uranium that's used for strategic purposes on a country by country basis, more for the Department of Defense reasons. But really, the vast, vast majority of uranium is used to fuel nuclear reactors.
Maurice Jackson: Provide us with some metrics on how abundant uranium is in the Earth's crust, and correlate that to the average grade that is found versus the grade that is needed to define an ore deposit in a future mine?
Ross McElroy: Well, uranium is actually one of the most abundant elements in the Earth. It's kind of ubiquitous. You'll see it throughout the Earth's crust; there is trace amounts of uranium present primarily in volcanic and igneous rocks and sedimentary rocks.
On a deposit level, there's actually a number of uranium deposits around the world, in every continent on the planet and in many countries. On a global basis, the average grade of a uranium deposit worldwide is around 0.1 to 0.15% U308.
Now, if you compare that to say, the deposits in Canada, they're orders of magnitude higher grade in Canada. We're talking orders of magnitude that are 10 to 20 times that of the global grade.
Although I've given you the average grade, most of those deposits at those lower grades, the average grades are really uneconomic deposits. We need grades that are generally much higher than the 0.1%–0.15% if it's going to be an economic deposit. And that's what Canada has. Canada has very high-grade deposits, so the economic metrics are just that much more attractive in Canada.
Maurice Jackson: Now that we've identified uranium's utility, what can you share with us from a supply and demand perspective?
Ross McElroy: Well, it's fairly simple to understand what the demand for nuclear energy is, in other words, uranium. We can just multiply the number of reactors around the world that are currently operating, and the known fuel consumption rate for a 1000 megawatt reactor is just under 500,000 pounds of uranium a year. If we look at the global reactors, there are around 450 reactors around the world. You can see that the need for uranium on an annual basis is around the realm of almost 200 million pounds of uranium.
Maurice Jackson: How does the nuclear plant in Fukushima, Japan, fit into this narrative?
Ross McElroy: Japan historically, up until the Fukushima event in 2011, was one of the main users on a country basis worldwide. Japan I think consumed almost 20% of the world's nuclear power, in other words, 20% of the world's annual production of uranium was used to run the Japanese reactors.
In 2011, of course, we had the magnitude 9 earthquake followed by a tsunami, and that's what damaged the Fukushima facility. Interestingly enough, even with that magnitude of an earthquake and the soon-to-follow tsunami, the reactor still did not breach. The housing that surrounded the reactor was damaged, and this is where some of the radiation leaks came from, but the reactor itself actually held, and so the damage was actually very, very limited and manageable.
What happened is overnight, Japan shut down all of its nuclear reactors, in other words, all 52 reactors I think they had working at that time, went offline. That caused disruption to the supply/demand situation globally.
What's happened since then is Japan is slowly coming back on. Japan's alternatives for power are pretty limited as the country doesn't have very much of its own resources, if any at all. It imports whatever energy that it needs, be it in natural gas now, in nuclear.
It's important for Japan to be able to operate these factories that they're running. I mean, it's an exporting country around the world, so it does have high energy requirements. It also has the requirements for inexpensive power.
Japan is coming back on to the scene as far as nuclear power. There are eight reactors that are currently back up and operating, and 17 reactors that are in the near-term licensing for approval to get them restarted again.
I think the bottom line is, prior to Fukushima, Japan depended on nuclear energy for at least 25% of its electricity demands. I think by the time 2030 approaches, Japan is supposed to be right back up to those same levels. The country is coming back on, it has always been an important major consumer of nuclear power. I think we'll see it right back to the equation again in the very near future.
Maurice Jackson: Uranium, next to gold, is known as the other yellow metal, and here's why. Ross, let's step back to the bull market in uranium. If one was selective with the uranium holdings, they would've had generational changes in their portfolio. What was the spot price during the last bull market?