Categories:
Energy
/
General Market Commentary
Topics:
General Energy
/
General Market Commentary
Raymond James: Uranium supply uncertain in coming years
Despite meaningful global inventories of uranium, supply uncertainty in the coming years may lead to price increases, Raymond James states in a newly updated review of the sector.
The brokerage forecasts that uranium prices “could rise from depressed levels, especially over the next few years, as uncovered demand becomes more of a concern, and trend upwards to our incentive price of US$50 per lb.”
“We acknowledge that there is still a large inventory overhang built up after the Fukushima accident and sentiment remains negative in some countries given comments from a number of governments (e.g. Germany) about reducing their nuclear fleets and the growth of renewables and natural gas,” Raymond James’ mining analyst Brian MacArthur writes in the report.
“On the other hand, given recent production cuts, potential new sources of demand from funds and producer buying and the lack of uranium production in consuming regions, combined with unknown political policies, the availability/reliability of uranium supply is becoming more uncertain and could lead to price increases.”
Demand for uranium has been weak in Japan since the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 — by some estimates about 140 million pounds of U3O8 is held in inventory by utilities in Japan, “which represents about 14 years of uranium requirements assuming half the reactors are restarted,” MacArthur notes.
Global inventories have also grown, with global utility inventories sitting at about 750 million lbs, “or over four years of primary supply,” MacArthur states, while at the same time countries like France and Germany have said they want to cut back their reliance on nuclear power.