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General Market Commentary
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General Energy
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General Market Commentary
Ringler Research Newsletter: Uranium Sector 7-31-2018
Comment by Ringler Research:
In this newsletter we would like to give a brief overview of developments in the last few months in the uranium sector. The sum of all positive facts confirms that the overall picture has brightened considerably compared to previous years! The chances are good that 2018/2019 will go down in the history books as the beginning of the next uranium bull market!
Here is a list of some important news:
- The world's largest uranium producer Kazatomprom announced in December 2017 that it would cut uranium production by 20% for three years starting in January 20018.
- Spot uranium price has risen from 20.25 USD in mid-April 2018 to currently 25.65 USD (or up 26%).
- Successful IPO of Yellow Cake PLC in July 2018 over 200 Mio. USD. Yellow Cake acts as a holding vehicle for physical uranium purchased through Kazatomprom's supply contracts. The first step will be to acquire 8.1 million Pounds uranium for the equivalent of 170 Mio. USD in transaction volume that would otherwise have been sold through the depressed spot market. These and future transactions should reduce the tradable volume on the spot market, which should result in rising uranium prices over the coming months and years.
- Cameco announced in November 2017 that McArthur River / Key Lake, the world's largest uranium mine, will be closed for at least 10 months. The McArthur River Mine is the largest and highest grade mine (9.6% U3O8) in the world, with 258.1 million pounds of Proven and Probable Resources. Mine production at 'McArthur River / Key Lake' was 12.6 Mio. Pounds uranium in 2016.
On July 25, 1818, Cameco announced that it would shut down operations at Key Lake and McArthur River for an undetermined period. The mines are not expected to be operational until long-term supply contracts have been signed on acceptable terms.
Cameco announced that it would buy uranium on the spot market to meet its delivery obligations. The company plans to acquire approximately 2-4 million pounds of uranium in 2018. If operations at McArthur River / Key Lake do not return to production, Cameco will buy approx. 10 million pounds of uranium on the spot market in 2019, which should have a stabilizing effect on the uranium market that should not be underestimated!
- The Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia was set to "Maintenance & Care Status" in May 2018 and hasceased operations due to low uranium prices. Their production capacity at Langer Heinrich is 5.2 million pounds per year since the Phase 3 expansion in 2012 was completed. The company produced 3.4 Mio million pounds of uranium in 2012.
- At the request of two domestic uranium producers (Ur-Energy and Energy Fuels), the US Department of Commerce (DOC) has launched an investigation into whether "the current volume and circumstances" of uranium imports endanger national security. If this investigation, called Section 232 ', succeeds, American power plant operators may be forced to purchase minimum percentage quotas (e.g., 25%)from domestic uranium production sources.