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General Market Commentary
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General Market Commentary
Supply cuts a 'step change' for uranium price
The announcement made by uranium giant Cameco in November that it’s suspending operations at its flagship McArthur River mine in northern Saskatchewan and surprisingly deep three-year cuts by Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazatomprom provide a "step change" for uranium prices says a new report on the sector from Cantor Fitzgerald equity research.
On Monday, the world largest producer of uranium, surprised the beleaguered market with a larger than expected cut to production of its own.
Two weeks ago Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazatomprom announced intentions to reduce its output of U3O8 by 20% or 11,000 tonnes (around 28.5m pounds) over the next three years beginning in January 2018. According to the company roughly 4,000 tonnes will be cut in 2018 alone "representing approximately 7.5% of global uranium production for 2018 as forecast by UxC."
Cameco's shuttering of McArthur River for ten months is expected to reduce production by 13.7m pounds in 2018 translating to a combined 42.3m pounds of expected production that has been removed from the market. In 2018 alone, the reduction will be about 24.1m pounds of U3O8 or about 15% of Cantor Fitzgerald's prior forecast of 158.4m pounds of output.
Rob Chang Managing Director and Head of Metals & Mining at Cantor Fitzgerald, said Cameco and Kazatomprom have introduced a "supply shock" that will lift uranium prices that dipped below $20 a pound in September.
We expect these events to ultimately push spot uranium prices to the mid-high US$20/lb range and perhaps into US$30/lb. However, as seen so far, the degree of movement may be muted at first due to fact that there are a limited number of qualified purchasers of uranium – making it a less efficient market.
We estimate that less than 10% of total uranium demand for 2018 and 2019 are uncovered, as utilities have shored up what were once large shortages through spot purchases or short-term contracts. As such, there is less of an impetus for utilities to make purchases immediately.