Categories:
General Market Commentary
/
Precious Metals
Topics:
General Market Commentary
/
General Precious Metals
Unstoppable palladium flirts with $2,000 for first time
LONDON (Reuters) - Palladium prices are within a whisker of breaking above $2,000 an ounce for the first time, with a gaping supply deficit fuelling a remarkable run that has seen the autocatalyst metal more than quadruple in value since 2016.
Once the cheapest of the major precious metals, palladium, used chiefly in engine exhausts to reduce harmful emissions, is now more than twice as expensive as platinum and $500 an ounce more than gold.
Prices have surged almost 60% this year, reaching $1,998.43 an ounce on Tuesday, before slipping back to around $1,950. In January 2016, an ounce cost as little as $449.55.
Palladium prices vs platinum and gold here
Tighter environmental legislation is forcing auto makers, who consume more than 80% of palladium production, to use more metal per vehicle — boosting demand even as the global economy and overall vehicle sales slow.
Adding to momentum were worsening power outages in major producer South Africa this month, which disrupted mining activity.
“We don’t think this is the top,” said Philip Newman at consultancy Metals Focus. “This (rally) has legs to run, because it is fundamentally driven,” he said.
Prices may pull back briefly, but auto makers have pushed prices higher again and again this year, said Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler,
“Any dip represents a buying opportunity (for them),” he said.
Citi analysts expect palladium to rise to $2,500 by the middle of 2020.
Palladium positioning here
Metals Focus predicts demand from the auto sector will rise by around 200,000 ounces this year. That would push the deficit in the roughly 10-million ounce a year palladium market to some 430,000 ounces — the eighth consecutive annual shortfall — and more deficits will follow, it says.