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Base Metals
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General Market Commentary
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General Base Metals
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General Market Commentary
Why Morgan Stanley says ‘the stars are aligned’ for this metal
“See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.”
That is how Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, describes the stock-market vibe these days as a rebound that is been in place since the start of 2019 keeps on keeping on. For Tuesday, that worked out to a rally on Wall Street, and there was a hint that there are possibly more gains where that came from for Wednesday.
While a deal with China may ultimately turn into a hollow victory for stocks, talk from POTUS about a possible flexibility to a hard trade-deal deadline with China has generated some excitement, along with his grudging acceptance of a shutdown deal. That isn’t to say some aren’t spotting odd occurrences in this market.
“For U.S. indexes, the unnerving point about the situation at the moment is the awkward fact that the VIX (commonly called the ‘fear index’) has now been above 15 level for its longest period since 2012. Oddly enough whilst a high VIX is generally the sign of bear activity, this rating has been maintained whilst the market has been on something of a bull run,” said Simon Denham, chief risk officer at TigerWit.
We’ll switch gears with our call of the day, from Morgan Stanley, which already made headlines this week with a warning about a looming earnings recession for the stock market. They’re much more optimistic about another asset, where they say the “stars are aligned.”
“We see 14% upside to copper from a supply-driven deficit by year-end. Furthermore, industry players are not over-earning, especially in light of rising capital intensity,” said a team of analysts led by Menno Sanderse. They say the stock names attached to this sector aren’t pricing in the prospects of more demand for the commodity, and rising prices should mean more industry profitability for those big players.
Another plus? They’re upbeat on the prospect of mergers and acquisition in the sector as well.