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General Market Commentary
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General Base Metals
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General Energy
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General Market Commentary
Zinc price on the up as supply tightens; cobalt forecast revised upwards as demand intensifies
Chinese zinc imports for August has increased 145% year-over-year to 227 000 t, according to Metal Bulletin and Chinese Custom Data released early on Tuesday morning.
Scotia Mining Sales noted in a report to clients that this is not surprising given the Shangai Futures Exchange and London Metals Exchange (LME) zinc price arbitrage was wide open from mid-May to the end of June, and again it has been open since mid-August.
The zinc price arbitrage refers to the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset to profit from a difference in the price. It is a trade that profits by exploiting the price differences of identical or similar financial instruments on different markets, or in different forms.
Zinc and, to a lesser extent, nickel are the only metals right now with an open arbitrage, Scotiabank advised.
Adding to the supply shortage, cancelled warrants in New Orleans have shot up by about 19 000 t overnight – metal which is likely heading for China given the positive price arbitrage there. Currently, about 122 000 t of the 220 000 t of zinc held in New Orleans are cancelled. Globally, there are only 260 000 t of zinc in storage, of which more than half is cancelled or unavailable.
Meanwhile, the zinc supply is expected to tighten, as China's Sichuan province could lose about 6 000 t of zinc output on the back of the suspension of several mines in the southwestern region for environmental inspections, according to a report by Metal Bulletin. The environmental inspections have resulted in the suspension of operations at more than 60% of zinc and lead mines in the province.
The inspections, which have been conducted by provincial governments since August 7, have led to suspensions of operations at more than 60% of zinc and lead mines in Sichuan, which is supporting prices. The benchmark three-month zinc contract on the LME was trading at $3 094.50/t at midday on Monday, in London, up about 35% year-on-year and 21% since the start of the year.
COBALT CRUNCH
Meanwhile, cobalt fundamentals are strengthening beyond recent forecasts, as the main catalyst for cobalt demand growth remains lithium-ion batteries.
Cobalt prices are up 144% year-on-year on rising battery production and tightening supply of raw materials, specifically battery chemicals. According to a note sent to clients of brokerage house Eight Capital, a “perfect storm” was created when two megatrends collided – rapidly growing demand amidst increasing supply shortage tensions.
Further, the political instability of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to jeopardise half of the world's cobalt supply. “The electric vehicle (EV) revolution and cobalt's preferential use within lithium-ion batteries have transcended the commodity's demand profile and provides fundamental support for higher long-term prices,” analyst David Talbot stated.
Prices have recently topped $27.50/lb, compared with a five-year average of $13/lb. Cobalt remains very important despite trading at thin volumes relative to other elements. “Thus, we expect cobalt will move into a prolonged supply deficit, warranting our higher cobalt forecasts,” the analyst said.
According to Eight Capital, demand for cobalt is projected to grow at 5.9% a year, compared with supply growth estimates of only 4.1% a year through to 2025. The analyst forecast a refined cobalt supply deficit to intensify from 2.5-million tonnes in 2020, to about 19.1-million tonnes of refined cobalt by 2025.